South African petrol price: Here’s what to expect in February 2026

Our third weekly snapshot Central Energy Fund’s daily Basic Fuel Price (BFP) movements for January keeps the early February picture tilted toward possible price relief, but not evenly across all fuel types. The big headline in the numbers is that petrol’s “cushion” has widened again, while diesel’s cushion remains much smaller.

UPDATE: The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy released the final adjustments to petrol prices, coming into effect on Wednesday, 4 February 2026.

February petrol price forecast: Over/(under) recoveries for this week

The easiest way to understand the over/under recovery is to picture a simple comparison.

On one side, you have what fuel should cost right now based on daily international prices and the rand/dollar exchange rate. That is what the CEF uses to calculate the BFP.

On the other side, you have the price level South Africans are currently paying at the pump or wholesale gate, which is built off an earlier set of assumptions.

If today’s calculated cost is lower than what prices are built around, the system shows an over-recovery. That usually means there is downward pressure on the next monthly adjustment. If today’s calculated cost is higher, it shows an under-recovery, which points toward upward pressure.

As of 27 January 2026, every fuel type on the sheet is still in over-recovery. Here’s the latest snapshot:

Those figures already tell a story in plain language. Petrol is showing a large gap, roughly 60 to 64 cents a litre. Paraffin is also meaningful at about 42 cents a litre. Diesel is positive, but the gap is much thinner at about 18 to 21 cents a litre.

That matters because the size of the gap is often the best “early hint” of how much room there is for a decrease if nothing changes before the end of the pricing window.

What the BFP movements look like in this observed period

The same CEF table shows exactly where the over-recovery is coming from. On 27 January, the BFP for petrol 95 is listed at 850.961 c/l, while the pricing reference used for the current period remains 911.170 c/l.  That difference is the over-recovery.

You see the same pattern across the basket. Petrol 93’s BFP is 836.475 c/l versus 900.170 c/l. Diesel 0.05% is 954.991 c/lversus 972.630 c/l. Diesel 0.005% is 962.453 c/l versus 983.030 c/l. Illuminating paraffin is 951.352 c/l versus 993.128 c/l.  

In everyday terms, the “raw cost” layer has moved lower than the level current prices were built around. That is why the over-recovery remains positive.

The month-to-date picture is also still firmly in over-recovery. The CEF’s average over-recovery from 2 January to 27 January is +66.439 c/l for petrol 95, +64.591 c/l for petrol 93, +55.095 c/l for diesel 0.05%, +62.391 c/l for diesel 0.005%, and +55.932 c/l for illuminating paraffin.

How this forecast compares to last week’s reading

Our second forecast anchor in this run was 23 January. Compared with that reading, the over-recovery has widened across the board this week.

On 23 January, petrol 95 was +46.478 c/l and petrol 93 was +54.141 c/l. Diesel 0.05% was +11.973 c/l and diesel 0.005% +16.418 c/l. Paraffin was +33.699 c/l.  

By 27 January, petrol 95 has risen to +60.209 c/l and petrol 93 to +63.695 c/l. Diesel 0.05% has climbed to +17.639 c/land diesel 0.005% to +20.577 c/l. Paraffin has increased to +41.776 c/l.  

Put simply, the cushion is larger this week than it was last week. Petrol’s cushion has strengthened the most. Diesel has improved too, but it remains far smaller than petrol’s.

What does this week’s data tell us about fuel prices in February 2026?

This third forecast still points to downward pressure for February, because all fuels remain in over-recovery.  The more important question now is what kind of February move the numbers are leaning toward.

Right now, petrol remains the clearest candidate for a meaningful decrease. Petrol 95 and 93 are both sitting in the low 60s in cents-per-litre over-recovery, which signals a larger “buffer” than diesel.  Paraffin is also still positive at around 42 cents, which suggests there is room for relief there as well.  

Diesel remains the complicated part of this forecast. The diesel over-recovery is positive, but it is still relatively thin in the high teens to low twenties.  If diesel’s cushion stays around these levels into the end of the review period, the eventual diesel adjustment could be smaller than petrol’s, even if both still move down.

Matching the CEF signal to the latest oil prices

Oil is not the same thing as the BFP, because the CEF calculation is based on a basket of refined product prices and the exchange rate. Still, crude oil trends help explain the broader direction of global fuel markets.

Late January has seen oil prices lift on supply disruption concerns and geopolitical risk. One market update reported Brent settling at about $67.57 a barrel and WTI at about $62.39 a barrel around 27 January.  Another Reuters report put Brent at $67.85 and WTI at $62.74 a day later, with the market watching US supply disruption after severe winter weather and rising Middle East tension.

Why this matters for your February outlook is simple. If higher crude prices feed into higher refined product prices, the BFP can rise and the current over-recovery can shrink. If crude and refined prices settle back down, the over-recovery can hold or widen.