South African motorists are facing a fuel price shock on 1 April 2026 that could be among the most severe the country has seen in years. The latest Central Energy Fund data, released on 23 March 2026, points to an average under-recovery of R5.62 per litre for 95 unleaded petrol and as much as R9.37 per litre for diesel over the past month. If those averages hold through the end of March, the adjustments that kick in on 1 April will be substantial.
Before we get to the numbers, it is worth understanding exactly why South Africa’s fuel prices move the way they do, because once you understand the system, the monthly announcements start to make a lot more sense.
How South Africa’s fuel price actually works
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) sets South Africa’s petrol price once a month, on the first Wednesday of every new month. That date is 1 April 2026.
The price you pay at the pump is not one single cost. It is a stack of components layered on top of each other, and each one can push the price up or down independently.
The foundation of it all is the Basic Fuel Price, or BFP. Think of the BFP as the cost of getting refined fuel to South African shores. South Africa refines less than 35% of its own fuel, down from about 80% previously, with the remainder imported as finished product.
The shutdown of the Sapref refinery in Durban in 2022 significantly contributed to this reliance on imports, with only Natref in Sasolburg, Astron Energy in Cape Town and Sasol’s Secunda coal-to-liquids plant still producing locally.
That means the BFP is almost entirely dictated by two things: the international price of crude oil and the rand/dollar exchange rate, since oil is priced in US dollars on global markets.
On top of the BFP sits a series of levies that go to the government. As of 1 April 2026, these include the General Fuel Levy (R4.10 per litre), the Road Accident Fund levy (R2.25 per litre), and a Carbon Tax Levy, following Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s announcement of a 21 cents per litre increase across these components during his February 2026 Budget Speech.
Then there are distribution and retail margins, transport zone differentials (which is why inland prices are always higher than coastal ones), and the customs and excise duties.
The piece of the puzzle that determines whether prices go up or down each month is the over- or under-recovery. The Central Energy Fund tracks this figure daily throughout the month.
An under-recovery means the current pump price is too low relative to what it costs to supply fuel at prevailing oil prices and exchange rates. An over-recovery means the reverse. At the end of the month, the DMRE uses the average over- or under-recovery figure across the full pricing period to determine the size of the adjustment.
Economists estimate that for every 10-cent move in the rand/dollar exchange rate, the fuel price shifts by roughly R0.06 to R0.10 per litre.
What the 23 March CEF data actually shows
The raw figures from the CEF snapshot dated 23 March 2026 lay out the scale of what is coming. The daily under-recovery for 95 unleaded petrol on that date was R8.99 per litre, meaning that on that single day, every litre of 95 petrol sold in Gauteng cost the supply chain nearly R9 more than motorists paid at the pump.
For diesel, the daily under-recovery on 23 March stood at R16.33 per litre for 50ppm diesel and R16.57 for 500ppm diesel.
Those daily figures are extreme and were influenced by a particularly weak rand, which had slipped to R17.18 to the dollar by 23 March 2026. What matters for the April adjustment, however, is the average under-recovery across the full pricing period, which runs from 27 February to 23 March 2026.
That average stood at R5.62 per litre for 95 petrol, R5.07 for 93 petrol, R9.37 for diesel 50ppm and R11.25 for illuminating paraffin.
Those averages will shift slightly as the last few trading days of March are factored in, but the direction is clear. The question is how much further oil prices and the rand move before the month closes.
What is driving the spike?
Two forces have converged to produce this situation. While long-term forecasts for 2026 originally suggested oil would stabilise around $60 per barrel due to oversupply, the escalation of conflict between the US and Iran in late February pushed Brent Crude above $115 per barrel.
South Africa, as a net importer of refined fuel, absorbs every dollar of that increase directly into the BFP.
At the same time, the rand has weakened steadily through March. Brent crude was trading just below $103 a barrel at the time of writing, while a softer local currency at about R16.66 to the dollar was making fuel imports more expensive.
The Road Freight Association has suggested exploring greater use of locally produced synthetic fuels, including ethanol derived from KwaZulu-Natal’s sugar cane, as a way to reduce exposure to these global shocks.
What are South Africans likely to pay from 1 April?
The predictions have moved significantly throughout March as oil prices and the rand have deteriorated. The latest projections from the CEF data as of 22 March point to the following increases: petrol 93 up by R4.68 per litre, petrol 95 up by R5.20 per litre, diesel 50ppm up by R8.52 per litre, diesel 500ppm up by R8.64 per litre, and illuminating paraffin up by R10.58 per litre.
If those figures hold, Gauteng motorists would be paying roughly R25.18 per litre for 95 unleaded from 1 April, up from the current R20.30. Coastal motorists would see 95 petrol reach approximately R24.28 per litre, while inland diesel 50ppm could climb to R25.78.
These are projections, not confirmed prices. The final adjustments will be confirmed by the DMRE at the end of March, with official prices taking effect from 00:01 on Wednesday, 1 April 2026.
Why this matters beyond the forecourt
The pain at the pump does not stay at the pump. Diesel underpins much of South Africa’s freight and agricultural transport, while petrol and diesel are widely used by taxis, buses and delivery fleets.
Sharp increases at the pumps typically translate into higher public transport fares and rising food prices as the cost of moving goods from farms and factories to retailers climbs.
For the roughly 16 million South Africans who rely on minibus taxis as their primary form of daily transport, a diesel spike of R8.52 per litre does not stay in the background. It comes for taxi fares within weeks. And for the millions of households who use illuminating paraffin for heating and cooking, a projected increase of R10.58 per litre is not an abstraction.
The South African Reserve Bank continues to monitor fuel prices closely to assess their effects on monetary policy. Analysts suggest fuel prices may remain high if supply tensions persist and the rand does not strengthen significantly.
