The United Kingdom’s Business and Trade Committee launched a formal stocktake inquiry on 13 April 2026 into the country’s Economic Prosperity Deal with the United States, citing sustained uncertainty created by US tariff escalation and rising protectionism that lawmakers say is frustrating ambitions for deeper bilateral trade and creating risks for UK firms operating across borders, with implications that extend beyond Britain to trading partners including South Africa.
The inquiry, which the committee says will report before the summer parliamentary recess, will examine whether the UK has a coherent strategy for its economic relationship with Washington, whether the Prosperity Deal has delivered on its promise, and what priorities should shape future co-operation in what the committee describes as a “more contested global economy.”
“The global trading system is fragmenting under the pressure of rising protectionism, tariff escalation, and intensifying geopolitical rivalry, creating new risks for UK firms operating across borders,” the Business and Trade Committee stated in the formal terms of reference published on 13 April 2026.
What the inquiry will examine
The Business and Trade Committee said the inquiry will focus on the current state of tariffs and sectoral barriers between the UK and US, assessing what the Economic Prosperity Deal has achieved and where it is falling short.
Lawmakers will also examine priorities for deepening trade co-operation and what a coherent UK strategy toward the United States should look like as the global trading system fragments under the pressure of geopolitical rivalry.
The United States is the UK’s largest single-country trading partner, accounting for 17 percent of total UK trade and 22 percent of all UK exports in 2024. The committee chair was direct in his assessment of the current situation:
“The United States is our most important trading partner, but it is not yet clear that this deal is delivering for growth,” he said.
The inquiry was launched alongside a separate stocktake of the UK’s relationship with the European Union, reflecting broader parliamentary concern that the UK’s trade architecture is under strain on multiple fronts simultaneously.
Why this matters for South Africa
South Africa has a direct stake in the stability of UK-US trade relations, for reasons that extend well beyond the bilateral relationship between London and Washington. The UK remains one of South Africa’s most significant export destinations, particularly for wine, citrus, automotive components, and platinum group metals.
Any contraction in UK economic activity driven by trade friction with the United States creates downstream pressure on South African export revenues.
Beyond the bilateral dynamics, the broader fragmentation of the global trading system that the committee describes poses a structural risk for emerging markets. South Africa’s trade corridors to Europe and North America are shaped by the same tariff frameworks and preferential agreements that the inquiry is scrutinising.
The Trump administration’s aggressive use of tariffs has already disrupted the African Growth and Opportunity Act conversations, with South African officials expressing concern about preferential access to the US market.
What the committee is looking for
The inquiry will take written evidence from business groups, trade experts, and government officials, with public hearings expected to follow.
The committee has not yet set a date for its first oral evidence session, but has indicated it aims to publish a report with recommendations before the summer recess.
The parallel EU-UK stocktake inquiry will assess whether the so-called EU reset pursued by Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on track to deliver the economic benefits promised, or whether it risks falling short of expectations.
Majority polling suggests UK voters currently support the EU reset, giving Starmer political room to pursue deeper co-operation with Brussels even as the US relationship remains volatile.
