Energy expert Ted Blom believes Eskom may need to shed a few extra thousands of megawatts from the power grid with stage 4 loadshedding.
Expert warns of stage 4 loadshedding this week
In a statement released on Wednesday morning, Eskom announced the return of stage 2 loadshedding, claiming further loss of power generation units as the main reason.
The national power supplier relies on open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) as one of its auxiliary generation sources. However, this is a very costly energy alternative and, at this juncture, cannot supplement the high demand for electricity in South Africa.
Eskom explained the return of rotational power cuts was “to preserve the remaining emergency reserves at the OCGT and pump storage power stations in order to prevent higher stages of loadshedding.”
However, according to Blom who, in previous predictions, was uncannily spot-on, the matter is worse than Eskom suggests.
Based on recent data released by the power utility, total breakdowns amount to 15 485MW and thus, Eskom needs to shed a maximum of 2 000MW, from the grid, up to six times over a four-day period for two hours, albeit in Johannesburg, outages last as long as four hours.
If Blom’s claim of “stage 4 loadshedding looming” is to be believed, then two things can be considered:
- a) there may be further power generation unit breakdowns and trips in the days to come; or
- b) Eskom’s breakdowns tally may not be accurate
Be prepared – stage 4 loadshedding looming!
— Ted Blom (@tedblom) November 17, 2021
Eskom, however, maintains that loadshedding will remain at stage 2 until 05:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021.
Eskom Group CEO Andre de Ruyter has, in recent press briefings, acknowledged the ailing state of the country’s energy infrastructure. Last week, De Ruyter held forged optimism about the utility’s ability to keep a stable grid for the short-term.
Albeit his prediction of no loadshedding this week was way off the mark, De Ruyter was not lost on the monumental hurdles Eskom had yet to overcome.
“These are complex units. They are very large units, difficult to operate, and we have spoken a lot about various constraints we have, in terms of procurement, and so forth, but we will take great steps to ensure that we can relieve that,” he said.
