South African motorists are facing a projected petrol price increase of between R2.29 and R2.63 per litre in May 2026, with diesel set to rise by more than R8.00 per litre, based on current under-recovery data, though analysts say a government levy extension remains possible if Middle East ceasefire conditions hold.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is scheduled to announce final May 2026 fuel prices on 6 May 2026.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana reduced the fuel levy by R3.00 per litre for both petrol and diesel in April 2026, forgoing R6 billion in government revenue as oil prices surged in the wake of the Iran conflict that began on 28 February.
The intervention substantially narrowed the under-recovery gap: petrol under-recoveries fell 67% from R7.88 per litre at the start of April to between R2.29 and R2.63 per litre, while diesel fell 54% from R17.57 to approximately R8.05 per litre.
International petroleum products account for more than 95% of South Africa’s current under-recovery, making the country’s pump prices almost entirely dependent on global crude movements.
What the current projections mean at the forecourt
Based on current mid-cycle data, petrol 93 is projected to rise by R2.29 per litre and petrol 95 by R2.63 per litre effective May.
Diesel at 0.005% sulphur is projected to rise by R8.07 per litre at the wholesale level, while illuminating paraffin is projected to rise by R6.52 per litre. For a driver filling a standard 60-litre tank with petrol 95, the projected May increase would add approximately R157.80 per fill relative to current pump prices.
Fleet operators and logistics companies managing diesel-dependent vehicles face a substantially larger cost exposure given the R8.07 per litre projected diesel increase.
Annabel Bishop, Chief Economist at Investec, cautioned that conditions could shift before the announcement date.
“Energy price drops are limited by uncertainty, as markets remain unsure whether the ceasefire in the Middle East will hold,” Bishop said.
Will the government extend the fuel levy cut beyond April?
The South African government has the fiscal capacity to extend levy relief, and analysts believe there is appetite to do so. Gina Schoeman, Country Economist at Citigroup, described a further reduction as realistic.
“A staggered reduction of the fuel price levy for at least another month, if not another two,” is “certainly feasible,” Schoeman said, estimating the additional cost to the fiscus at between R10 billion and R12 billion.
An extension through May or June would bring total foregone revenue to as much as R18 billion, a significant but manageable commitment given the government’s current fiscal position.
Key variables before 6 May
Several factors will determine whether the projected increases materialise in full or are further cushioned by policy intervention.
The durability of the Iran ceasefire remains the single most significant variable, given that Middle East uncertainty is the primary driver of global crude prices.
US sanctions measures and the status of the Strait of Hormuz blockade announced this week will also affect oil supply flows. Any signal from National Treasury in the coming days regarding a levy extension would provide material relief.
The next official announcement is confirmed for 6 May 2026, and the DMRE will publish updated mid-cycle data in the days prior, allowing consumers and businesses to refine their planning.
